Baty says that the final wave of this evolution will be "the creation of more dynamic systems that can form, use and break connections between separate entities in a market or segment as needed with minimal advance planning. These new systems that allow ad hoc trans-enterprise automation are supported by technologies such as Web Services, XML and improved business application integration capabilities. Early in the decade most will be with preselected partners, but later more dynamic systems will arise."

Baty further points to the long-term possibilities of information networks being used to link organisations to create "connecting ecosystems". But if developing internal IT systems can be fraught with stumbling blocks, there will be even more hurdles to clear when developing inter-enterprise systems. The primary issue will be ensuring that where shared systems are employed they are adequately supported by any enterprises using them and that matters such as ownership of the systems and the intellectual property therein are properly addressed. Baty believes these issues can be overcome and involve: "extending the Web-model to industrial strength", but acknowledges that will take time.

Complex issues, technical and governance related, will not be solved overnight, but CIOs are advised to at least consider how new systems could be designed with this outward-facing capability in mind. Even if those systems are not activated immediately, CIOs should at least ensure that any new information systems do not inhibit such outward-facing capabilities in future.

Gartner Action Item #1: Evaluate opportunities for inter-enterprise systems to yield business benefits.

Gartner Action Item #2: Prepare IT processes and support tools for inter-enterprise systems before they arrive on the doorstep.

3. There will be a macroeconomic boost from inter-enterprise systems.

As new systems permit more interconnectedness there will be less waste and delay, says Baty, and he expects that will filter through to the overall economy. He admits that by using conventional economic measurements such as GDP it may be hard to track this effect, but stresses that "where countries invest in IT there is a beneficial effect on their economies".

He says that as inter-enterprise systems become more widespread, business should expect improvements in the productivity of capital and labour. "The result will be further utilisation levels of production equipment, lower inventory levels and less waste or rework as entire systems of enterprises in a market or value chain are able to react more rapidly to change." That, he argues, will then flow through in overall economic results, both for the participants and presumably ultimately for national economies.

A rigid example of an inter-enterprise system is a B2B online market. There is already evidence of waste reduction and cost savings from such activities, but what Gartner seems to be predicting is the dawn of much more agile and flexible inter-enterprise systems in the future. For participants in these connected corporate ecosystems one challenge will be to develop models of how these ecosystems should be paid for, maintained and used - and also presumably regulated in order to avoid undesirable anti-competitive cartels hiding within them.

Gartner Action Item: Look carefully at proposals for inter-enterprise systems to find those that might generate competitive advantage to participants, prior to the point that they become market- or segment-wide.

4. Successful firms in a strong economy will lay off millions.

In a fairly dire warning, Baty predicts the top 2000 corporations worldwide will employ 10 per cent fewer workers than they do now by 2005, and by 2010 the headcount will be 30 per cent down on what it is today. And that is a reduction not because these enterprises perform poorly in a sluggish economy, but because they do well in a stronger economy.

"We are going to see a shrinking workforce where there are growing revenues," he warns. It is, according to Gartner, the likely effect of the long-promised IT productivity boost, and will prompt some major social shifts. Gartner believes that IT productivity benefits actually were delivered in the past, but their effects were masked as far as employment trends were concerned because, rather than simply achieving the same tasks with fewer people and some technology, companies opted to do new things with the freed-up resources. With the low-hanging fruit now plucked, Gartner says new initiatives are not keeping up with productivity improvements.

"Now we predict that we will see IT increase productivity - and put people out of work - but the economies will become more efficient," Baty says, predicting not only a corporate challenge but a dilemma for Western nations where high unemployment is political anathema.

Gartner Action Item: Plan how to communicate the justification for layoffs that occur in times of plenty.