At its core, however, Google's enterprise strategy will remain viral. It won't try to convince CIOs to replace the applications they already have with Google versions. Instead, Google will continue to produce products that people like using and will use — at home and at work.

"It will happen without people noticing," says Girouard, prophetically. "People look for a eureka moment but things just seep in. That's what's happening here."

In other words, one of these days you could wake up and find that most of the applications your company uses are provided by Google.

That's a vision bound to keep most CIOs on edge (see "You've Been Googled", page 50). "It's hard to figure out if they're your best friend or your competition," says Shield. But Girouard doesn't want to alarm anyone. "Legacy applications don't go away overnight," he says. "We aren't telling CIOs to get rid of your mainframes or get rid of your client/server [systems].

"We want CIOs to think about the new areas that they could be investing in. We will start them down that path."

The Naysayers Say Their Nay

It may not be Google that ultimately brings CIOs to the brave new world of end-to-end Web computing. Consumers and businesses have vastly different needs. A consumer application doesn't need to comply with Basel II or a corporate travel policy. Making an application that can account for these and other business needs takes an understanding of the market it is catering to.

"Google has the platform, but they don't have any expertise," says H&R Block's West. "That's their challenge. The platform allows them to bring more horsepower. Now they need to make something that businesses will buy." West acknowledges that many of Google's consumer products are better and easier to use than their enterprise counterparts. And if Gmail was able to address the archiving, monitoring and reporting requirements that the US Securities and Exchange Commission has for financial services companies, then West would probably buy it. But until that day comes, he has no choice but to stick with his legacy client/server e-mail application.

If Google keeps its consumer focus, it may never acquire the business skills to satisfy customers like West. "Consumers aren't yelling for the kind of protection that businesses require," says IDC's Feldman. But Girouard says that Google created its enterprise division to make its consumer products more appealing to businesses. And, he says, Google is partnering with companies in the corporate space, such as consultancy BearingPoint, which started an enterprise search practice in February that will use Google's technology. In mid-April, Google announced partnerships with enterprise software vendors Oracle, SAS and Salesforce.com to enable real-time search across those companies' applications.

Adam Sohn, director of global consumer marketing for Microsoft's MSN, is dismissive of his budding rival. "The golden halo around them doesn't guarantee them success in the software business," he says, Microsoft's indisputable might lending weight to his words. The software giant has not yet decided whether to wage an all-out war with the upstart. If it does, Microsoft has a pretty good track record in these fights. (Raise your hand if you're still using Netscape.) And Microsoft knows it's in a fight. Last year, Bill Gates told Fortune magazine: "They are more like us than anyone else we have ever competed with."

High praise.

But unlike Microsoft's previous competitors, Google's applications are not wedded to the Windows operating system, so Microsoft cannot use its monopoly there to limit access to Google. "They cracked the one thing that Microsoft has not cracked: They have a Web-capable platform," says West. "Microsoft does not have that."

But even if Microsoft prevails — or if Google simply implodes on its own, done in by growth, internal squabbling or hubris — the model will survive and thrive. Applications are destined to move to the Web. Perhaps not all at once, and maybe not even quickly (after all, companies are still running Cobol applications on mainframes), but Google has demonstrated that the Web computing model is viable.

"Google is a great search engine," says West. But, he says, its real legacy will be that it pioneered a new approach to computing, "combining Web services and cheap hardware to deliver on a massive scale. In the process, they changed the way consumers approach technology."

And that's going to change everything for CIOs.

SIDEBAR: Google's Progeny

Google right now is the biggest Web computing platform out there. But there are smaller companies that have built open-source distributed computing platforms of their own and are using them to offer services targeted to businesses. They include:

» Rearden Commerce Rearden's portal lets users do everything from buy plane or concert tickets to send packages. It enforces corporate policies when a user is at work (such as no first-class tickets for trips less than eight hours), but lets them decide for themselves when they are wearing their consumer hat.

» Employease A Web-based human resources application. The company has direct connections with most payroll and benefit providers. It has 1000 customers and manages close to 700,000 records.

» Workday PeopleSoft founder Dave Duffield's latest venture. The not-yet-live company is building out its platform and will offer ERP-like features in an on-demand environment.

SIDEBAR: You've Been Googled

The Shift to Web computing is already happening, even if it may not be noticeable in your workplace. High-speed Internet access is giving your company's employees access to Web-based applications at home. Inevitably, they will find and use the applications they like best. Soon CIOs will be faced with a choice, says Dave Girouard, general manager of Google's enterprise division. "The CIO can be the source of the tools, or he can take the hardball approach and try to shut them down."

The thing is, says Girouard, people are going to use them either way.

History bears this out. "A lot of the innovation that ends up in front of CIOs starts off in a user's home," says Paul Kedrosky, executive director of the William J von Liebig Centre, a venture capital firm. "Think back 20 years ago. The rearguard action would have been to make sure that my users aren't buying PCs when I am not looking."

CIOs who don't want to be marching in the rear of change can start taking small steps today. H&R Block CIO Marc West says that CIOs should think twice about every client/server application they install. "If you are a PeopleSoft customer who's going to have to upgrade to Oracle, you should be seriously questioning that investment," says West. "Do you need to keep all that information in one application? Maybe some things don't belong in PeopleSoft."

As Internet-connected devices like PDAs and mobile phones become more popular (and IDC research shows that they will soon outnumber PCs), employees will demand access to information through them. And since these devices aren't powerful enough to run client/server applications, it will be up to CIOs to provide Web-based applications for those employees or risk, as Girouard says, "losing their constituencies".

Or, as Sue Feldman, IDC vice president of content strategies research, puts it, "CIOs have to become part of the network".